2013 Predictions for the eBook

2012 was a landmark year for both independent publishers and eBooks. While eBooks surged ahead of sales of hardcover books, independent publishers were heralded with widespread acclaim and acceptance as part of a vibrant literary scene. This piece on NPR, summarizes the hurdles that independent publishers have overcome, as well as a few success stories and author insights. Listening to the piece is a great way to cap a landmark year for independent publishers.

But don’t rest on your laurels just yet! Over at The Huffington Post, there are more predictions for the year ahead, including the idea that the glut of eBooks will probably continue. The guess is that as more independent authors bypass major publishing houses, eBooks will flood the market and that out-of-print titles will find new circulation as previously established authors begin to convert their titles to eBooks. But the increased competition should not scare off aspiring writers, the article states. More readers than ever will be searching for eBooks, providing even more opportunities for authors to find an audience.

Another phenomenon to watch out for is the “Black Swan” effect. The Black Swan effect is when a book from an unheralded author becomes a runaway success despite improbability. Expect to see even more of this in 2013 because large publishers have trouble locating Black Swans because of the myriad boundaries they put between themselves and authors. Publishers need to work through agents, who are yet another barrier between the writer and the marketplace. The marketplace, with its democratic way of allowing the cream of the crop to rise to the top, has a penchant for identifying Black Swans. Readers reward novels that are genuinely good, different, and provide something that readers have not already seen. For aspiring writers, the hope is to be that Black Swan, while publishers will continue to put up barriers between themselves and those classics-in-waiting. Expect more and more modern classics to emerge from the ranks of independent publishers.

Expectations for 2013 are sky-high in the world of independent publishing. 2012 was a year of success after success, and 2013 looks to be just as awe-inspiring. What are your predictions for independent publishers? In which new direction would you like to see publishing go? What are your own personal writing goals for 2013?

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3 Comments

  1. So, how does an independant ebook become a Black Swan? Obviously you’d need good original content that’s well written, but are there any factors that tends to bring that book to the forefront?

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