Interactive Q&A -- click any link to add comments

• The New Hollywood Era

  2008 Sep 16

  Question 16: What is the New Hollywood Era?
  
  Answer: In the late 1960s and early 1970s, the studios began hiring a new generation of younger filmmakers that were trained in prestigious film schools, colleges, and universities. These filmmakers were hired by the studios to instill a new freshness, energy, and excitement into Hollywood motion pictures — once again, with the goal of capturing the attention of the younger movie audience. These filmmakers were considered auteurs because of their individual film style. They were given a lot of control over the artistic elements of production which provided the film their individual, personal, unique stamp. These auteurs ushered in the New Hollywood Era that produced movies with a uniquely different film style than those fashioned during the former Classical Hollywood Cinema time period.
  
  Bottomline: The New Hollywood Era of the late 1960s and early 1970s was characterized by auteur filmmakers that produced movies with a freshness, energy, and exciting style that captured the attention of the younger movie audience.
  

• Business versus the Aesthetics of Filmmaking

  2008 Sep 15

  Question 15: Is there a conflict between the business of filmmaking and the aesthetics of filmmaking? If so, what is the background concerning this conflict?
  
  Answer: Yes, there is a definite conflict between the business of filmmaking and the aesthetics of filmmaking. By the late 1920s, the Silent Era's primitive film style of one man with a camera transitioned to a studio system approach with division of labor as technology continued to advance. However, the division of labor within the film industry and the advances in technology which enhanced the aesthetic quality of films being produced in Hollywood resulted in a conflict between the cost of doing business versus the artistic elements of filmmaking. As film production technology became more complex, the need for specialization of labor fields also solidified which later resulted in the formation of unions and guilds. Therefore, the division of labor coupled with the mandate to incorporate technological advances into films resulted in additional costs for producers. The increasing costs associated with film production caused a direct conflict between producers and directors. While the goal of a production chief was to keep cost down to a minimum, the director's goal was to make a film with creative, artistic value and great aesthetic quality. The budgetary limitations imposed by a production chief oftentimes can restrict the freedom of a film director to incorporate costly artistic elements that he/she would otherwise like to use.
  
  Bottomline: A director's focus on the aesthetic quality of a film oftentimes lies in direct conflict with budgetary limitations imposed by the producer(s) of the film.
  

• Source Credibility of Film Directors

  2008 Sep 13

  Question 14: How important is source credibility of a film director in the motion picture industry?
  
  Answer: If a film director is very well known throughout the motion picture industry and already has an established credibility in the eyes of the viewing audience, there is a great probability that the film will be a great success. Examples of this apply to well known directors such as Steven Spielberg. His past successes with great films such as Amistad, Schindler's List, or Saving Private Ryan almost guarantee the majority of the movie going audience will receive his films in a positive fashion simply because he is a popular, well-known credible film director throughout the Hollywood industry. This is why people purchase well-known brand non-prescription drugs versus the generic variety, even though the ingredients are exactly the same. It is because the brand name medications already have been accepted by the buyer as a credible source while the generic brand has not. The source credibility principle still applies here as well as in the motion picture industry.
  
  Bottomline: If a film director has an established source credibility with the viewing audience, there is a great probability that the film will be a great success.
  

• Results of My 2008 Oscars Predictions

  2008 Feb 28

  Based upon the formula presented in my book entitled, "And the Oscar Goes to..." (ISBN 1847284876), the results of my 80th Academy Awards predictions for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Adapted Screenplay are described below.
  
  Best Original Screenplay Oscar Winner was "Juno".
  Comment: The CIRA Film Scoring Tool calculated a Score of 25 for this movie which equated to a HIGH POTENTIAL for winning the Best Original Screenplay. Thus, the results of the CIRA Scoring Tool for Best Original Screenplay was consistent with the actual Oscar winning film selection by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS).
  
  Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar Winner was "No Country for Old Men"
  Comment: The CIRA Film Scoring Tool calculated a Score of 29 for this movie which equated to a HIGH POTENTIAL for winning the Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Adapated Screenplay. Thus, the results of the CIRA Scoring Tool for these 3 categories are consistent with the actual Oscar winning film selection by AMPAS.
  
  Note: The CIRA Scoring Tool calculated a slightly higher score of 31 for "There Will Be Blood" which equated to an Excellent Potential for winning an Oscar. Thus, it appears that the CIRA Scoring Tool was not refined enough to capture the qualities of the film "No Country for Old Men" to push the CIRA point count over and above the film score rating of 31 for "There Will Be Blood." Nevertheless, the CIRA Scoring Tool did accurately predict the High Potential of "No Country for Old Men" to win an Oscar in the Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay categories. This High Potential risk rating in and of itself testifies to the fact that many of the trends presented in my book "And the Oscar Goes To..." (How does a filmmaker become an Academy Award winner?), ISBN 1847284876, do indeed have merit and are worthy of serious consideration by people engaged in the craft of filmmaking.
  

• Predictions for the 2008 Oscars

  2008 Feb 15

  Question: What are your predictions of the films that will win an Oscar for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Screenplay (Original and Adapted) at the upcoming 80th Academy Awards competition?
  
  Answer: As a result of my analysis of the Oscar competition scheduled for Sunday, 24 February 2008 at 5:00 pm PST, 8:00 pm EST, my best estimate for what films will win Best Picture, Director, and Screenplay are as follows:
  
  My Prediction for Best Picture: There Will Be Blood
  (other Best Picture nominees include Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton, and No Country for Old Men.)
  
  My Prediction for Best Director: There Will Be Blood
  (other Best Director nominees include The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Juno, Michael Clayton, and No Country for Old Men.)
  
  My Prediction for Best Screenplay (Original): Juno
  (other Best Screenplay/Original nominees include Lars and the Real Girl, Michael Clayton, Ratatouille, and The Savages).
  
  My Prediction for Best Screenplay (Adapted): There Will Be Blood
  (other Best Screenplay/Adapted nominees include Atonement, Away from Her, The Diving Bell and the Butterfuly, and No Country for Old Men).
  
  Note (1): My Oscar predictions are based upon the film scoring tool formula outlined in my book "And the Oscar Goes to..." (ISBN 1847284876). This unique tool is referred to as the Film Campaign Investment Risk Analysis (CIRA) Scoring Tool and is available for free online use at http://adrian.robbe.googlepages.com.
  
  Out of a possible high of 39 points, the Film CIRA Scores for the 5 films nominated for Best Picture at the 2008 Oscars ere as follows:
  
  There Will Be Blood: 31 Points
  Atonement: 22 Points
  Juno: 25 Points
  Michael Clayton: 25 Points
  No Country for Old Men: 29 Points
  
  Note (2): I do not believe there are any 100% accurate, objective criteria for predicting whether or not a film will win an Oscar. However, after closely examining the results of Oscar nominations/selections throughout the Academy Awards 80 year history, I do believe there are several trends in existence today that contribute in their own particular way to enhance a film's probability of influencing Academy membership voting on being nominated for and/or winning an Oscar. These trends are too powerful to ignore. In my book, "AND THE OSCAR® GOES TO..." (How does a filmmaker become an Academy Award® winner?) (ISBN 1847284876), I expand in greater detail about each of these trends and how they contribute to a film's nomination.
  
  Note (3): After the Oscars broadcast is finished and the official winners of the Academy Awards have been announced, I will be posting a blog on this website describing how successful or unsuccessful my Film CIRA Scoring Tool actually was in accurately predicting the winners of these Academy Award categories.
  
  

• Classical Hollywood Cinema

  2007 Dec 29

  Question 13: What is Classical Hollywood Cinema?
  
  Answer: Classical Hollywood Cinema is the time period of the film industry that began with the movie release of The Birth of a Nation. It incorporates both the Silent Era and Studio Era of filmmaking. Unique to Classical Cinema, the mode of production during this timeframe encouraged film directors to view their work from the perspective of an employee of the studios rather than as auterists who exercised creative control over their works with an individual film style. The Classical Cinema time period ended in the 1960s when the motion picture industry ushered in a new Post-Classical film style by auterist film directors with the release of Bonnie and Clyde (1967) as well as other landmark films of that decade.
  
  Bottomline: Classical Hollywood Cinema is the time period of the film industry that incorporates both the Silent Era and Studio Era of filmmaking.
  

• Musicals and their Nomination Potential at the Academy Awards

  2007 Sep 01

  Question 12: Are musicals strong contenders for an Academy Award for Best Picture?
  
  Answer: The representation record for musicals at the Academy Awards is even worse than that experienced by comedies. From 1927–2001, only 7.8% of the films nominated for Best Picture (i.e., 28 out of 358) were musicals; and a mere 10.8% of the winning films (i.e., 8 out of 74) receiving an Oscar for Best Picture were musicals.
  
  Bottomline: No. Musicals are not strong contenders for Best Picture at the Academy Awards.
  

• Comedies and their Nomination Potential for Best Picture at the Academy Awards

  2007 Sep 01

  Question 11: Are comedies strong contenders for an Academy Award for Best Picture?
  
  Answer: Comedies are films that are light in storyline and incorporate humorous or satirical events, and musicals are movies with a narrative that is mixed together with singing and dancing.
  
  Even though these types of films are popular among much of the general public, they are not well represented in the Academy Awards competition when contrasted to dramas. Between 1927 and 2001, only 18.2% of the total number of films nominated for Best Picture (i.e., 65 out of 358) were comedies; and 13.5% of the films selected that won the Oscar (i.e., 10 out of 74) were comedies. This statistic also includes seriocomedies (i.e., comedies with serious elements or overtones) such as American Beauty.
  
  Note: American Beauty is the exception rather than the rule regarding its representation at the Oscars since it won Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Screenplay in 1999.
  
  Bottomline: No. Comedies are not strong contenders for Best Picture at the Academy Awards.
  

• New Online Tool Released For Predicting Academy Award ® Winning Films

  2007 May 18

  Infinity Films of Williamsburg, Virginia, USA, has just released a new, interactive, online, film marketing campaign, decision-making tool for filmmakers. This unprecedented web-based software utility is called the Campaign Investment Risk Assessment (CIRA) Film Scoring Tool and is available for use at http://adrian.robbe.googlepages.com
  
  What is CIRA?
  Answer: CIRA is a logical, marketing campaign decision-making tool for movie producers in determining the Oscar ® winning potential of a film nominated for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Screenplay at the Academy Awards ®.
  
  How does CIRA work?
  Answer: Through application of criteria based upon decades of Academy Award winning trends/data analysis, the CIRA Film Scoring Tool automatically calculates and predicts the Oscar winning potential (Excellent, High, Moderate, or Low) of a film that receives a nomination by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences ® for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Screenplay of the Year.
  
  Who will use CIRA?
  Answer: Through use of the CIRA film scoring technique, Hollywood movie producers can equip themselves with a reasonable, logic-based estimate of the Oscar winning potential for each film nominated to compete in these categories at the Academy Awards. In addition, independent filmmakers can use CIRA to help better posture their films to be as competitive as possible at film festivals by evaluating their own film against the award winning trends and criteria contained in this new online utility.
  
  Why is the CIRA Film Score important to movie producers?
  Answer: The Oscar winning potential of a motion picture nominated for an Academy Award for Best Picture can be helpful to the film's producer in making an informed decision concerning the movie's marketing campaign strategy that is aimed at securing as many votes as possible among the Academy's voting membership.
  
  Will CIRA be made available to the general public?
  Answer: Yes, the author of the CIRA Film Score (Adrian Robbe, Business Manager for Infinity Films of Williamsburg, Virginia, USA) has arranged for CIRA to be made available for free use to the general public at the CIRA Film Scoring Tool Website located at http://adrian.robbe.googlepages.com .
  
  What expectations exist for CIRA in the near future?
  Answer: Infinity Films is expecting huge numbers of Academy Award enthusiasts to swarm to their CIRA website after nominations for the 2008 Oscars are announced on Tuesday, January 22, 2008, at 5:30 a.m. PST (13:30 UTC) at the Samuel Goldwyn Theater in Beverly Hills, California, USA. Traffic to their website is expected to reach astronomical proportions as the date closes in for the 80th Academy Awards ceremony, honoring the best in film for 2007, which is scheduled for Sunday, February 24, 2008, at the Kodak Theatre in Hollywood, California.
  
  How can I find out more details about the CIRA Film Score?
  Answer: The extensive research/data analysis upon which the Campaign Investment Risk Assessment (CIRA) Film Score is built upon (to include all observed Academy Award winning trends) is described in the book "AND THE OSCAR GOES TO..." (How does a filmmaker become an Academy Award?) by Adrian Robbe, ISBN 1847284876. This book title is available for purchase through Lulu, Inc. at http://www.lulu.com/infinityfilms
  

• Results of 2007 Oscar Predictions

  2007 Mar 04

  Based upon the formula presented in my book entitled, "And the Oscar Goes to..." (ISBN 1847284876), the results of my 79th Academy Awards predictions for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Adapted Screenplay are shown below:
  
  The Prediction for Best Picture — "The Departed" — was CORRECT.
  
  The Prediction for Best Director — Martin Scorsese for "The Departed" — was CORRECT.
  
  The Prediction for Best Original Screenplay — "Babel" — was INCORRECT. The Oscar winner for this category was "Little Miss Sunshine."
  
  The Prediction for Best Adapted Screenplay — "The Departed" — was CORRECT.
  
  My predictions for the 79th Academy Awards were released in my blog post entry below on 13 February 2007. The results of the Oscar winning film selections by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences were released 12 days later during the televised evening broadcast on 25 February 2007.
  
  Note: As you can see, the formula in my book for calculating the Oscar winning potential for these award categories came in at 75% (i.e., 3 out of the 4 predictions were CORRECT). Although not 100% perfect and still in need of some refinement/improvement, it appears that many of the trends presented in my book "And the Oscar Goes To..." (How does a filmmaker become an Academy Award winner?), ISBN 1847284876, do have some merit and are worthy of serious consideration by people engaged in the craft of filmmaking.