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Venezuela as an Exporter of 4th Generation Warfare Instability (Enlarged Edition) By Max G. Manwaring, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College
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Because of rising popular expectations regarding currently nonexistent rights in Latin America, it appears to be a revolutionary, insurgent, criminal, and populist dream. Thus, the Americas appear to... More > be particularly susceptible to state (and their proxies) and nonstate actors that promise the security, stability, and prosperity national governments have generally failed to provide. Accordingly, Venezuela and President Hugo Chavez have become exporters of asymmetric, unconventional, and undeclared war. If left ignored and unchecked, these wars compel radical, unwanted, and epochal political-economic-social system change. Even though prudent governments must prepare for high-risk, low probability conventional interstate war, there is a high probability that the U.S. President and Congress and leaders of other powers around the world will continue to require civil-military participation in unconventional conflicts.< Less
Ambassador Stephen Krasner’s Orienting Principle for Foreign Policy (and Military Management): Responsible Sovereignty (Enlarged Edition) By Max G. Manwaring, U.S. Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute
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Ambassador Stephen D. Krasner reminds us that policymakers in great power nations such as the United States can aspire to realizing grand strategies based on a rational ends, ways, and means formula.... More > They rarely succeed, however. It has proved too hard to align vision, policies, and resources. Moreover, multiple state and nonstate actors, conflicts, interests, changing technological dynamics, and exposure to unexpected political, economic, and social shocks are too complex for such a rational process. The most obvious alternative to a grand strategy is no strategy at all, or a simple “wish list.” Nevertheless, Krasner argues that reliance on one or more orienting principles is a second—better—alternative to a grand strategy.< Less