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Projecting Pyongyang: The Future Of North Korea’s Kim Jong Il Regime By Andrew Scobell & Strategic Studies Institute
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Forecasting is a challenging business, and this is especially true when North Korea is the subject. A little more than a decade ago, the conventional wisdom was that the end of North Korea was... More > imminent. The country was beset by a severe famine, its economy appeared to have collapsed, and the collapse of the regime seemed destined to follow. In 2008, the conventional wisdom views North Korea as rebounding from the crisis of the last decade and the regime as being on a firm footing. Many experts now scoff at the possibility of the demise of the Kim regime. Dr. Andrew Scobell’s research cautions against wholeheartedly embracing conventional wisdom where North Korea is concerned. This monograph addresses the question of Pyongyang’s future. Specifically, it explores the future of the regime of Kim Jong Il, constructs a number of scenarios, and then identifies the most plausible one.< Less
The “People” In The PLA: Recruitment, Training, And Education In China’s Military By Andrew Scobell et al.
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I am pleased that, for the second year in a row, the U.S. Army War College and The National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR) teamed up to convene the annual PLA colloquium. Over the years, this event... More > has successfully increased understanding of China’s military and the multiple aspects of its ongoing modernization effort. Last year was no exception. On September 28, 2007, under the joint leadership of the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute and NBR’s Pyle Center for Northeast Asian Studies, approximately 70 leading experts on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) convened at Carlisle Barracks, PA, for a 2-day discussion on the Chinese military’s human infrastructure. Presentations and discussions at the conference focused on identifying trends in recruitment, education, training, personnel management, and demographics within the PLA.< Less
North Korea’s Military Threat: Pyongyang’s Conventional Forces, Weapons Of Mass Destruction, And Ballistic Missiles By Andrew Scobell et al.
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North Korea is a country of paradoxes and contradictions. Although it remains an economic basket case that cannot feed and clothe its own people, it nevertheless possesses one of the world’s... More > largest armed forces. Whether measured in terms of the total number of personnel in uniform, numbers of special operations soldiers, the size of its submarine fleet, quantity of ballistic missiles in its arsenal, or its substantial weapons of mass destruction programs, Pyongyang is a major military power. North Korea’s latest act to demonstrate its might was the seismic event on October 9, 2006. The authors of this monograph set out to assess the capabilities and discern the intentions of North Korea’s People’s Army.< Less

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