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OTREC-RR-11-24 By Miguel Figliozzi et al.
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This study investigated potential road closure travel disruption due to climate change in two Portland watersheds. We used multiple models to develop an impact assessment method. Runoff was... More > validated for 1988-2006 and used to estimate flood probability for 2020-2049. We surveyed streams at five crossings and found four bridges and roadways below the 100-year flood elevation, leading to frequent floods. Floods will become more frequent under some climate change scenarios. Vehicle miles traveled were not significantly affected by road closure, but vehicle-hours delay increased. Cost analysis is very sensitive to human fatalities or injuries and fairly insensitive to delays. This study presents a comprehensive classification of flood costs, identifies preventative measures, and makes recommendations. Results demonstrate the benefit of integrating top-down and bottom-up approaches in climate change impact assessment, and the need for spatially explicit modeling and participatory planning in flood management.< Less

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