Strateging for Performance On-site Tax Inspections: Trends, Models, Forecast

The problem of the effectiveness of tax control is considered, associated with changes in approaches to organizing on-site audits, which today are focused on the interests of not only the state, but also business. To substantiate the strategic parameters of conducting on-site control of business by tax authorities, it is proposed to use a generalized and tested by Russian scientists mathematical apparatus based on the Hurwitz criterion of pessimism-optimism, which in the work is proposed to be used in conjunction with the generally accepted system of indicators in the Federal Tax Service Inspectorate characterizing the effectiveness of tax audits, as well as supplement with regression models of the dependence of additional tax payments on the number of inspections. For analytical and model calculations, a sample of data on additionally accrued tax payments and fees by type, as well as information on the number of on-site tax audits for 2000-2021, was used as information resources. The resulting regression models show that each audit brings in the amount of additional taxes and fees. The results obtained can serve as the basis for planning the strategic parameters of on-site tax control.