Predictive risk and health care: an overview

Risk adjustment has been used for many decades in research studies, but since the 1980s the approach has been increasingly used in managing health systems, and looks set to play a greater role in the NHS in the future. In this research summary, we review how predictive risk adjustment techniques are currently being used in the NHS, explore some of the challenges involved in applying these techniques in practice, and examine some recent advances and new developments in this field. Nuffield Trust publications are available to download free of charge from www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/publications